Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Physical Address
304 North Cardinal St.
Dorchester Center, MA 02124
Maharashtra, which voted in a single phase on Wednesday, is likely to witness a tight contest with the ruling Mahayuti having a slight edge with 112 of 288 Assembly seats over the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which may secure 104, according to C-Voter survey. The halfway mark is 145.
According to the survey, 61 seats remain too close to call. However, past elections have shown that exit polls often get it wrong and the numbers must be taken with a pinch of salt.
In Mumbai, the Mahayuti, which comprises the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, is likely to coast ahead of MVA with 17 out of 36 seats of the region, data shows. On the other hand, MVA, which comprises the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena UBT and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, may end up with 10, while eight seats were too close to call, as per C-Voter.
In the Konkan region, the Mahayuti is projected to get a good lead over MVA and may secure 20 seats, according to the survey. INDIA, on the other hand, may get eight and nine seats were too close to call.
In Marathwada, Mahayuti may edge ahead in the region’s 47 seats and is likely to get 20 seats as opposed to MVA which is projected to win 14. Another 13 seats were too close to call, as per the survey.
However, in North Maharashtra, Mahayuti is predicted to get 18 seats in a see-saw battle with MVA in the region’s 36 seats. The Opposition MVA may get nine and eight others were too close to call.
In Vidarbha and West Maharashtra, MVA is likely to edge ahead of Mahayuti and may get 23 and 34 seats, respectively, data shows. The Mahayuti is projected to get 18 and 25. Sixteen and 7 seats in both these regions were too close to call.
Other parties are projected to get 11 seats and likely win one each in Mumbai and North Maharashtra, two in Konkan, three in Vidarbha and four in West Maharashtra, according to C-Voter survey. They may not open their account in Marathwada, it says.
In terms of vote share, the Mahayuti is projected to get 41 per cent with MVA likely to get 40 per cent. Other parties are predicted to get 19 per cent of vote share, according to C-Voter.
Region-wise, the Mahayuti is projected to get a vote share of 49 per cent, 45 per cent, 36.7 per cent, 41.5 per cent, 40.7 per cent and 38.5 per cent in Mumbai, Konkan, Marathwada, North Maharashtra, Vidarbha and West Maharashtra, respectively. For MVA, the alliance is predicted to get 36.7 per cent each in Mumbai and Konkan, 42.3 per cent in Marathwada, 39.3 per cent in North Maharashtra, 40.2 per cent in Vidarbha and 44 per cent in West Maharashtra.
In terms of demographics, 41.9 per cent of women voted for Mahayuti, 36.4 per cent for MVA and 21.7 per cent for other parties, the C-Voter survey says. On the other hand, 40.3 per cent of men voted for Mahayuti, 43.3 per cent for MVA and 16.4 per cent for other parties, data shows.
Three exit polls have predicted that Mahayuti is likely to return to power for a second term in Maharashtra, while another one has forecast a neck-and-neck contest with the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi. An average of three exit polls shows that Mahayuti is likely to secure 158 seats, comfortably above the halfway mark of 145 seats.
Matrize has predicted anywhere between 150-170 seats for the Mahayuti and has given 110-130 seats to the MVA.
Times Now-JVC has also predicted a Mahayuti win, giving the alliance 159 seats. For the MVA, it has forecast 116 seats.
Chanakya has forecast that the ruling alliance, which banked on a host of welfare schemes, especially the Ladki Bahin Yojana, would cross the halfway mark, predicting it to bag 152-160 seats. The MVA, which was ousted from power in 2022 following a rebellion by Eknath Shinde, is likely to win 130-138 seats, according to Chanakya.
PMarq, meanwhile, has forecast a close contest between the two alliances. It predicted 137-157 seats for the Mahayuti, while giving 126-146 seats to the MVA.
All eyes will now be on November 23, when the votes will be counted along with that of Jharkhand.
In the 2019 polls, the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena contested the elections together. The NDA won 161 seats (BJP-105 and Shiv Sena-56). However, the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena parted ways over the chief minister’s post issue.
The Sena joined hands with Congress and the undivided NCP to form the MVA government in the state. In 2022, Shinde rebelled against then Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray, leading to the fall of the MVA government, and became the Chief Minister after joining hands with the BJP.
A year later, Ajit Pawar led a similar rebellion against his uncle Sharad Pawar and he and a section of NCP MLAs joined the Mahayuti government. Ajit Pawar became the Deputy Chief Minister along with Devendra Fadnavis.
This year, the Mahayuti and MVA were locked in a two-cornered fight. However, there were several mini-fights within this battle.
Apart from a high-stakes legacy battle between the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) for Bal Thackeray’s heritage, a prestige contest simmered between the two NCP factions led by Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar.
If the exit poll predictions come true, it will be an endorsement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s policies and help the NDA shake off the underpar performance in the Lok Sabha polls.